Petroleum Reserves
The terms petroleum and mineral oil, or oil for short, are synonymous. The crude oil that is found in various parts of the world differs in quality and composition, depending on the biological origin and geological history. It is found in geological reservoirs under the ground or under the seabed at depths up to several thousand meters.
A recent survey of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the world’s oil reserves as 1.6 E(12) barrels. The distribution of the oil reserves among the major oil reservoirs of the world is as follows (in percent): Middle East (42), North America, including US, Canada and Mexico (15), Russia, including Siberia (14), North andWest Africa (7.2), South and Central America (6.1), Asia and Pacific (5.5), Caspian Basin (3.5), Western Europe, including the North Sea (3.1), and others (3.6).
Taking an average heating value of crude oil as 5.8 E(6) Btu/bbl, the world’s oil reserves amount to 9280 Q. The world’s oil consumption in 1995 amounted to about 141 Q/y. If that consumption rate were to continue into the future, the world’s oil reserves would last only for about 65–70 years. If oil consumption keeps increasing at a rate of 1.1%/y, the lifetime of the world’s oil reserves would be only about 50 years.
In a 1998 Science article, Kerr predicted that the peak production rate of crude oil will occur sometime between 2005 and 2020. After that, the production rate will decline, which means that the consumption rate must also decline. This also means that the world’s energy appetite must be supplied by sources other than oil.
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